Sunday, November 25, 2007

EURUSD 1.50 and USDJPY 106?

The Euro was within a whisker of 1.50 (it was at 1.4966 before backing off over 180 pips) and yen was steadily going towards 107 until the stock market rally stopped it dead in its tracks. But this happened on a Friday after Thanksgiving when the volumes were low, and stops triggered. We’ll see the real stuff the following week and see if the European fort can hold up against the Dollar. Once USDJPY broke down 108.00 on Thursday, the path seemed to be set for 106, but the DOW’s Friday rise put the Yen bulls in check. This looks like a good trade next week, but we’ll have see where the DOW is going (read the previous articles on the state of the Indices and you’ll understand why). (Click on images to enlarge)








Commodity currencies also seem to be following the path of, well, commodities. As the DOW went up 180 pts on Friday, the Aussie followed suit, with GOLD up $20 to $823. On the other hand, USDCAD also went up, as OIL went down. There also seems to be deteriorating fundamentals on the Canadian economy, as the USDCAD soldiers its way up even the DOW goes up.
I must admit I like the EURUSD and USDCAD right now. The EURUSD seems to be holding its own and wants to hit 1.50, while the USDCAD seems to be going the wrong way (which is good!) towards 1.0000 again. Had the DOW tanked on Friday, the USDCAD would probably be there already.

Chief Shook

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