Sunday, November 4, 2007

CROCODILE HUNTERS SLAY CROCS

Why is it dangerous to go headlong into Earnings announcement with a stock that ascending vertically? Here's why: (Charts for stockcharts.com)

Crocs makes one of most trendiest and MOST EXPENSIVE sandals on the planet. Look at them. Cool, eh? And they have a wide range of choices to cater for kids so we parents have money to spend on. But investors of Crocs surely must be feeling the world is against the reptile nowadays. After announcing recent earnings, Crocs fell off a cliff (look the charts above), to the tune of 35%. WOW! It was not about current years earnings, but rather about future guidance which disappointed investors (they might be thinking that this is the end of fad, especially with the growth of Crocs imitators.....Who can blame them? Even I bought a Crocs "imitation" which was 30% the price of the original thing! Doesn't look as good though, I might admit).

This shows the dangers of going headlong into an Event Risk with positions, especially if they are inadequately protected. The plunge would make any Crocodile Hunter proud! Btw, Crocs’ Board has approved a share buyback for 1 million shares…..for obvious reasons (but this is really "chicken feed" compared to EMC's $2 bln buyback, or Allegheny Technology's $500m buyback). Hope we’ll still have the Crocs fad, because apart from breaking my wallet (for the kids), the shoes really look cool, don’t you think? I mean, just look at those shoes. (from the Crocs site, of course)

Chief Shook

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