Tuesday, February 12, 2008

WANT EXCITEMENT? GBPCHF IS IT!


The GBPCHF remains as one of the most volatile pairs out there, rivaling the GBPJPY as the wildest pair in the wild,wild west of Forex. This makes it the perfect hedging vehicle for Covered carry trades on the GBPJPY (which can be protected to the tune of 1,500 pips). But we’ll talk on the GBPJPY on another day.

The GBPCHF is so far undergoing consolidation (see the triangle in the Charts below), presumably before breaking out again. But where to, you might ask? Although the 4 hour charts shows upside (for now), the longer term daily suspiciously points down. The short term direction might be down, as the Bank of England is expected to reduce interest rates to 5.25% while the ECB remains wary of inflation. But the Commitment of Traders show the GBPCHF breaking to the upside, with the big dogs long the Sterling and short on the Swiss Franc.

We’ll see. This pair remains a BUY on dips.

Chief Shook

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